Conditions for the illegal tobacco market with the outbreak of war have become better - experts of the Institute of the Future

After the start of a full -scale invasion of Russia, the conditions for the development of illegal tobacco market have only improved, and the measures taken by state bodies to combat this phenomenon are ineffective. As a result of the loss of the state budget from the functioning of the shadow market of tobacco products will continue to remain high: if in 2022 they were estimated at UAH 19. 1 billion, then in 2023 it can reach UAH 22 billion.

This is stated in the study "The illegal market of tobacco products in the conditions of a full -scale war: challenges and threats", which the Ukrainian institute of the future presented the day before, reports "Censor. NET". "The gaps in the work of the Ukrainian system of law enforcement agencies after the start of a full -scale invasion of the Russian Federation allowed the participants of illegal tobacco market to grow production quickly and expand their products.

In 2022, Ukraine increased in 2022, reaching 19. 9% ​​of the entire market, "the study said. The reasons for the growth of the illegal market, the authors are the discrepancy between the level of taxation and income of the population, the variability and the unpredictability of regulatory policy, the mismatch of punishment for the scale of illegal activity, in particular, the lack of coordination among law enforcement agencies in combating smuggling and counterfeiting.

And the responsibility for the illegal production and sale of cigarettes is unprofitable with financial benefits for organized criminal groups, which determines the low effectiveness of the fight against producers and "large" suppliers of illegal products. In addition, increasing the tax burden on tobacco products is ahead of the increase in consumer income, adding research authors.

According to the research, after the invasion of Russia, the proportion of tobacco products that were illegally produced in Ukraine increased sharply: counterfeit (counterfeiting) and cigarettes without excise stamps labeled with Duty Free or exports that are illegally sold in the domestic market without taxes. In 2022, the share of such products on the market increased to 11. 7% of the total volume of the market.

Popular sales channels of illegal tobacco products are spontaneous trade and markets, where about a third of its total volume is sold. However, most of all - 63% of all illegal cigarettes - in 2022 were sold in kiosks and shops.

Among the recommendations of experts is the approval of a new strategy for combating illegal circulation of excisable goods, which should provide for the introduction of a balanced approach to the issue of raising excise duties, taking into account the dynamics of income and purchasing power of the population.

In addition, the authors believe that it is necessary to create an effective single center, which will be responsible for coordinating the work of various law enforcement agencies involved in counteracting illegal production and circulation of excise products, strengthening the responsibility of violators in the field of illegal circulation to the investigation of such cases.

Despite the adoption of the Law on Production of Production in Ukraine Cigarettes labeled Duty Free for the time of martial law, a decision should be made to solve this problem and after its completion.

According to the authors, it is necessary to strengthen the control over import and circulation of tobacco raw materials, as well as equipment for the manufacture of cigarettes, as well as simplification and systematization of the procedure of blocking the distribution channels of illegal products through the Internet and enhancement of control over storage and destruction of confiscated tobacco, tobacco and equipment " We do not do "homework.

In addition, she noted that she was ready to travel with law enforcement officers on raids to reduce the number of tobacco counterfeit in Ukraine. In turn, the influx of tobacco counterfeit not only reduces the state treasury, but also hurts the reputation of Ukraine in the international arena, Oksana Shvets, the head of the "taxation", "customs policy" of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine.