Power Price: As Erdogan wants to change Turkey's future using war in Israel

Indeed, when the issue of threats and exacerbation in the Middle East has been discussed during the last three weeks, the risks of interference in the confrontation between Israel and Hamas controlled by Iran's groups, such as Hezbolla, or Maximum, Iran himself, were taken into account first. But Erdogan actually actualized the question of the completely unexpected side of the conflict.

Can Turkey really forcefully intervene in the counter -terrorist operation of Israel, turning them into a full war? To get the answer to this question, it is necessary to plunge a little into the Turkish internal political prehistory. The domestic policy this year in Turkey was held by the presidential election, and Recep Erdogan was literally a step away from defeat. In the second round, Erdogan gained 52. 18% of the vote, while the opposition candidate Kelichdaroglus received 47. 82% of the vote.

Kilichdaroglu was literally breathing in the back of Erdogan, which resulted from the popularity of his political force in Turkey. But let us return a while ago and remember the local elections in Turkey in 2019. Then for the first time in 25 years the mayor of Istanbul became not a pro -government candidate. In the 2019 local elections, he defeated the Mammamoglus. And now the most important thing.

Rezhep TaiP Erdogan and the Party of Justice and Development (PSR), are supporters of Islamic conservatism, and even more - they largely despise the ideas of Kemalism, in particular, secularism. That is, the PSR and Erdogan rate is made on a conservative, religious electorate. But to rely on such a layer in a society in which the century was grown worldness, it is becoming more difficult. And the loss of positions of the PSR and Erdogan himself proof of this.

In turn, Erdogan has the opportunity to unite the conservative society of Turkey, increasing its electoral stability, taking advantage of cynically sounded, but the trendy information wave in the Gaza sector. Therefore, in Erdogan's speech, imbued with religious topics, which makes it even more absurd, taking into account the place where it happened (Mustafa Camal Ataturk Airport), political populism is viewed rather than the real willingness of Turkey President to expose yatagana.

That's only this populism, if it helps Erdogan himself to keep his position for another term, then Turkey is unlikely to promise foreign policy well -being. Do not threaten the war without being ready, many people expect to see something like the comparison of the militaristic potential of Turkey and Israel in this section, what the Turkish side can, without having a common ground border with Israel, threaten Jerusalem. But this will not be here. For one simple reason.

All these beautiful graphs and illustrations, which army in how many tanks, fighters and artillery are fun for amateurs. In fact, wars begin, not only be won, but also quality, but also a number of other concomitant factors. One of the most prominent and bleeding examples is the war in Ukraine. If the conclusions were made according to the schedules and beautiful pictures about the military potential of Ukraine and Russia, then Ukrainian defense should be destroyed . . .

No, not in three days, but would definitely not last as much as a year and a half. Israel has one excellent property that, I think, should be remembered by every neighbor who lands bile. If Israel is not touched, he lives quietly, peacefully, developing, building the future. But Israel is to be touched, it begins to grow. Do you want peace? Do not bring to war. 75 years of history of Israeli state therefore an example.

And if Erdogan wants to play a strong leader, then he would not interfere with the experience of Anwar Sadat in detail, as having a total and comprehensive advantage, you can not only lose everything, but also be one step towards losing even your own country. The step before the loss of the post of Erdogan was this year, why to get himself in a historical loop, from which no one else managed to get out? It is possible to leave in history for centuries without wars.