Russian theory of victory: what is the danger of delaying war in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes that the creeping offensive on the front will convince the event that the victory of Kiev is unattainable, while concessions about the territories are better than the defeat. For him, any ceasefire agreement is a mechanism for preparation for the restoration of the attack in the future, told in ISW. Russian President Vladimir Putin will try to delay the war and destroy Ukrainian statehood.

In order to avoid the enemy "Victory Theory", the event must be supported by Ukraine for a counter -offensive. This was reported by analysts of the Institute of War Study in the report on June 30. "The event should rush to Ukraine with the necessary support for counter -offensive operations in order to cancel Putin's victory theory and avoid delaying war more than necessary to ensure peace acceptable for Ukraine and its partners," the message reads.

In an interview with June 30, President Volodymyr Zelensky declared anxiety that the West is afraid to achieve a complete victory for Ukraine for fear of stability in the Russian Federation, as a result, this fear can allow Moscow to continue to capture as many Ukrainian territories as possible.

He noted that every promotion of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation strengthens the negotiation force of the Russian Federation, and Putin can use it in "favorable moments" to achieve ceasefire regime, which will allow the occupiers to prepare for further aggression.

"Putin has formulated a theory of victory, which suggests that the Russian forces will be able to continue the gradual creeping promotion endlessly for a long time, preventing Ukraine from carrying out successful counter -offensive operations and winning war," analysts said. Now, the Russians prefer consistent offensive operations, the purpose of which is a gradual tactical achievement, not to conduct a large -scale offensive operation to achieve significant success with a rapid pace.

Putin can consider a creeping offensive as a more guaranteed approach to success in Ukraine than large -scale mobile offenses, and probably acknowledges that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will have to concentrate on individual operational areas for many months or years. The protracted war can contribute to Putin's calculations, he believes that the Russian Federation will be able to hold any position and reach the current declared territorial goals at a longer duration of the war.

In addition, this, according to analysts, will encourage the Russian Federation to clearly set new territorial goals until the defense forces can neither stop the promotion nor to carry out significant counter -offenses. The President of the Russian Federation can hope that the creeping Russian progress in Ukraine will convince the Western countries that the victory of Kiev is unattainable, and the concessions about territorial integrity are better than defeat.

"Putin does not want to accept anything but complete surrender of Ukraine, however, as they constantly show his remarks and requirements, he will consider any agreement on ceasefire as a mechanism of preparation of Russia for the restoration of offensive operations in the future to achieve his common goals," explained in ISW. Analysts added that until Putin is interested in ceasing the fire, because he continues to believe that he could achieve his goals by force.

While any arrangement to cease fire on the Kremlin would mean the surrender of Ukraine and the West. We will remind, on June 30 President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stated, Ukraine can agree on peace with the Russian Federation, using the same model that was for the "grain corridor". Then Kiev was negotiating with the UN and Ankara, and those with Moscow.