The strategic initiative is moving to the Armed Forces, Ukraine was first received a chance to form a course of war - ISW rating and hostilities map

"The preparation of Ukraine for the counter -offensive in Kherson and the initial operations of this counter -offensive in combination with the sharp weakening of the Russian forces in general, probably for the first time Ukraine allows Ukraine to start actively forming the course of war," the authors of the fresh review emphasize.

They point out that the Russian forces are increasingly transferring personnel and equipment to the Kherson and western part of the Zaporozhye region - at the cost of their attempts to capture Slavyansk and Siversk, which they seem to have refused. In addition, the army of the Russian Federation also relocated military equipment, including artillery and aviation, to Crimea from other regions of Ukraine.

Earlier, the invaders have already stopped offensive operations (in particular in Kharkiv and in the southern direction) to make priority capture of the Luhansk region, but then they went on such steps on their own initiative, based on the change of leadership priorities, the ISW analysts say.

However, now the Army of the Russian Federation seems to have to respond to the threat of Ukrainian counter -offensive in the Kherson region, not to consciously choose the goals that should concentrate efforts. Now the seriousness of the dilemma facing the Russian command is likely to depend on Ukraine's ability to carry out large -scale contradictory operations at the same time in several directions.

If Ukraine is able to exert serious pressure on the positions of the invaders in the Izium district, continuing the transition to a counter -offensive near Kherson, then Russian troops will face a very difficult choice. “They will probably have to either abandon their position in the West of Izium in favor of protecting their lines of land communications north and east, or allocate more personnel and equipment to try to keep the current front line.

However, such forces would need to be translated from another direction that would threaten other conquests of Russia, ”the experts of the Institute of War Study (ISW) explain. In their new summary, they also analyze the statements of Russian propagandists about the "strikes" in the Donetsk Drama Theater and Correctional Colony No. 124 in occupied Donetsk, which the Armed Forces artillery allegedly caused on August 4 (the Office of the President of Ukraine denied these facts).

ISW experts make a number of arguments confirming the invaders' lies. Yes, those local damage, which the propaganda media of the Russian Federation showed in their reports about the alleged "shelling" near the theater in Donetsk, "does not correspond to artillery shelling", writes ISW (video or photos of "UDAR" in the colony.