The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is difficult to maintain the pace of offensive in Ukraine: ISW analysts explained the reasons

In the near future, the Russians will be forced to reduce military operations under Bakhmut and in other areas, US experts say. It is difficult for the Russian army to maintain the pace of the offensive in Ukraine due to a shortage of artillery shells at the front. This is the conclusion of the analysts of the American Institute for War Study (ISW) in the report for December 31.

On the eve of the New Year, the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov told in an interview with ICTV, which in the Russian army began major problems due to the lack of artillery ammunition, which will increase even more by March 2023. According to him, if earlier the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation fired about 60 thousand shells a day, now they use three times less (19-20 thousand).

Cyril Budanov added that the Russians removed all the shells from military warehouses in Belarus to replenish their stocks. Prior to that, on December 24, the UK Defense Ministry has led intelligence data, according to which Russia lacks ammunition for great exceptions. At the same time, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is forced to spend a large number of artillery shells and missiles to at least keep the defense on the front lines.

The Institute of War Study implies that due to the lack of ammunition, Russian troops will soon not be able to maintain the high rate of offensive on the outskirts of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, which became one of the hottest points in the war in Ukraine. It is likely that the deficit will prevent military operations in other areas. And Kirill's statement about the export of stocks was another testimony that Russia is unlikely to go on a large -scale offensive from Belarus in the coming months.

On December 25, the German Defense Ministry stated that the Russian Federation could launch a major offensive on Ukraine in April 2023. According to the first scenario, the Russians will conduct an operation for the full capture of the Donbass, and the second: attack Kyiv, continuing to press in eastern Ukraine. On December 26, the speaker of the eastern group of Russian troops Sergei Cherevaty declared the possibility of an operational pause in Bakhmut battles.