Collapse in the Russian Federation - myth or reality. Is the Kremlin really in 2025 to end the money for the war

And these difficulties can lead to a fall in GDP. This opinion was recently expressed by the former Bank of America and Morgan Stanley Craig Kennedy. Meanwhile, Bloomberg states that Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has caused economic growth in Russia, which was based on government stimulation. But almost three years later, there are signs that it is time to pay for accounts, and Russia is getting closer to the economic recession.

About a third of the budget revenues of the Russian Federation is formed at the expense of oil and gas sources, says financial analyst Ivan Uglynitsa. The same opinion economist Vitaliy Shapran, a member of UTFA, ex-member of the NBU Council. "The Russian budget finances the war at the expense of oil revenues, but not only the budget.

The war is also funded by the unofficial funds of the Russian Federation and the crediting of the Russian Security Service of the Russian Federation from state -owned banks. In general, more severe sanctions against Russian oil can lead to a decrease in the revenues of the Russian Federation, so yes And to the problems of liquidity in the public finance system.

Russia continues to receive currency from oil sales, but these incomes should be reduced as a result of a new package of sanctions from the United States that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation predicts a sharp decrease in GDP growth in 2025 to 0. 5% compared to 3. 5-4% projected last year, Also, according to the prognosis of the Central Bank of Russia, inflation will return to the target of 4% only in 2026.

The experts surveyed by focus are skeptical of forecasts regarding any increase in the GDP of the aggressor country this year, but inflation will grow accurately. "CBR in this matter is a great optimist and hopes for the fraising of inflation data to show some growth of real GDP. The problem is not in the scenario of growth now, but the change in the nature of inflation in Russia as such. In peacetime, the production of most products is balanced around national wealth.

The tractor continues to harvest for 5-10 years, to sow and sow To list economic factors for the Russian Federation - it is important to calculate the likelihood of blocking them with Ukraine and allies. Ivan Uglynitsa noted that the growth of GDP of Russia or recession in civilian sectors is expected - especially sensitive to rates and consumer demand, such as the construction sector, industrial, industrial.

"At the same time, the military sector depends on the political decision and it is difficult to predict how the situation will develop - whether political will and resources will continue to continue the military race," the analyst says. The fact that in Russia has already begun in most sectors, says Andriy Shevchyshyn, a financial analyst, a member of the Ukrainian Society of Financial Analysts. "There is already a deterioration of the economic condition in many sectors.

First of all, it is the extractive industry. It is stagnating on all pressure: both oil and gas, as the number of buyers of resources is reduced and sanctions are increasing. And there is a negative result on coal, because it does not accept it in the processing industry. because imports are needed, "Shevchyshyn said. According to him, in the Russian Federation the sector of construction is already strongly cooled: the market is not stagnant, but it is obvious to secure the developers.

In turn, construction "touches" other sectors. "Retail is still growing in retail, as the income of the population continues, it generates consumer demand. But here the service sector slows down," the expert says. Experts also say about the promotion of inflation in Russia in 2025. "A year of the Russians began to increase excise duties on fuel, increase in taxes, in particular for citizens, an increase in the minimum price of vodka and cigarettes.

Approximately 10% will increase the internal price of gas, for transportation and storage . It is even difficult for me to call the economy, which is not concerned with price increases. year. The product inflation has reached about 25-30%, so if they have drawn low inflation, and without manipulation with the deflator it is impossible, I can assume that they have already entered during stagflation, "Vitaly Shapran says.

Inflation in the Russian Federation will accelerate, says Ivan Uglynitsa, but there will try to fight with typical administrative methods - regulation of prices, prohibition of raising, regulating margins and so on, which will lead to a shortage of goods. Ivan Uglynitsa believes that this year the ruble will continue to weaken significantly.

The main factors, the expert notes, is the growth of demand, the growth of inflationary sentiment, the reduction of currency income and the problem with receiving revenue in currency, reducing the reserves of the Central Bank. In fact, the Russian government will not have too many opportunities to maintain the stability of the course. Andriy Shevchyshyn also says about the devaluation of the ruble.

He believes that the exchange rate of the Russian currency will be influenced by the balance of payments and the budget deficit of the Russian Federation. "There with external partners (exporters - ed. ) It is very difficult. Revenue returns or does not return, and all currency essentially burns in the war of war. Everything goes into the economy, but burns. They grow up. The demand remains high. The ruble will continue to decline .

Although everything will depend on the Central Bank policy, whether it will increase the rate, " - said Andrey Shevchyshyn in a conversation with focus. According to Vitaliy Shapran, the devaluation of the ruble is a rescue circle for Russian exporters, including oil, steel producers, coal, and cauliflower. "The devaluation of the ruble is like" bone "for Rosnafta, Lukoil, Gazprom (although it will have little to save it).

Nabiullin threw this" bone "exporters in the hope that part of the effect will help the Ministry of Finance close the hole in the budget. However, if there are any stress Events like Prigogine's rebellion, the CBR is not ready for them, and cataclysms should be expected in their foreign exchange market. Depending on the China and Policy of the National Bank of China (NBK).

On January 10, the United States imposed new sanctions against Russia, under which the company was such important for the economy of the company as Surgityftegaz, Gazprom Neft, Ingosstra, Alfastrakhivania and others. The new package is aimed at reducing Russia's revenues from energy exports, increasing pressure on the Russian economy and complications of Russia's opportunities to finance the war against Ukraine, and it is envisaged that sanctions will work since February 27.

Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of the Energy Programs of the Center Razumkov, believes that the sanctional package approved by the US should affect the Kremlin oil income - they will be reduced. "The package is significant because two key companies have fallen there, it is the third and fourth in volume of oil production of Surgityftegaz and Gazprom Nepht, and these companies are as close as possible to Putin's family and are essentially his wallet.

Therefore, these sanctions are really There are extremely unpleasant for these companies, for the Kremlin, " - says Vladimir Omelchenko. He adds that sanctions will be influenced not only because mining companies are on the list, but also because secondary sanctions will receive terminals that will accept the tankers of the so -called "shadow fleet" of Russia. That is, there are fewer port terminals in India and China now to accept such vessels.

"If these sub -tankers go into a certain terminal, then sanctions on the owners of these terminals. This is very unpleasant, it is such a novella that was developed in Congress, it has already caused a situation where these Chinese, Indian companies are afraid to accept in their terminals Russian tankers, they will be more careful about them for the availability of oil documents, as well as the effect of insurance policies, "Omelchenko said in conversation with focus.

Vitaliy Shapran notes that the current package of sanctions is very powerful and is likely to block the supply of Russian oil to the PRC and India by the sea, but it is not necessary to expect that 100%. "The negative effect for the Russian Federation will be accurate, but its depth will depend on the coherence of Ukraine's actions with allies," the expert says.

He adds that more severe sanctions against Russian oil can lead to a decrease in the revenues of the aggressor budget and liquidity problems in the public finance system. However, experts also talk about Russia's opportunities to get around even new sanctions. In addition, there is a segment of pipeline oil where there are no sanctions. "The oil and gas revenues of the Russian Federation decrease and will decrease.

But there is still a risk that they will bypass, for example, forge the certificate of oil, that this is some Malaysian oil, not Russian. Plus part of oil sales is not made by sea, there is an export of a Trebovine, where there are no sanctions ", - says Andrey Shevchyshyn.

But in 2025, all experts expect to strengthen the actions of sanctions on the Russian economy, which, along with internal problems of the Russian Federation (such as lack of employees, inflation, devaluation, budget deficit, decline towards the economic crisis.

"Large-scale expenditures for war and acceleration of these expenditures together with the beginning of Kursk operation and intensive shelling of Ukraine and Ukraine, including military and economic purposes in the Russian Federation, lead to the fact that resources are being completed there.