The new offensive of the Russian Federation to the north of Ukraine: whether the enemy breaks from Belarus in the fall - expert evaluation

"The visibility of the training is the most acceptable way to relocate, to cross troops, to concentrate in some direction and to create a group of troops. Actually, so began in 2022. But you remember that at first a group was created, it was conducted training, and we all hoped that they would end up. A factor of Russian attack from the border with Belarus is possible.

At the beginning of a full -scale invasion in February 2022, Russia used the territory of Belarus as a bridgehead for an offensive to the north of Ukraine, in particular in the direction of Kiev. Russian troops, equipment and missile strikes came from the Belarusian territory to Ukraine. Before the invasion, Russia conducted military exercises jointly with Belarus, which became a cover for the accumulation of forces.

Even after the departure of Russian troops from northern Ukraine in Belarus remained a certain number of Russian forces, as well as training of mobilized Russians at Belarusian landfills. Russian aviation also uses Belarusian airspace to launch missiles in Ukraine. Planes and drones that attacked Ukrainian cities took place from the Belarusian airfields. Russia also places nuclear weapons in Belarus.

President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he was not going to attack Ukraine. The military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko believes that the number of troops of the Russian Federation in the territory of Belarus will depend on the goals of the Russian group during exercises. Namely their number, providing ammunition and equipment. "During the full-scale invasion of 2022, Russia introduced about 40,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

These forces were well-equipped and had higher combat capability than it was not now, but even this is not enough. So, if Russia again wants to attack Ukraine, say, for the sake of Belarus. Belarus will be 15-20 thousand, it can be a serious ground for concern, "-says focus the expert. According to Kovalenko, even a grouping of 10-20 thousand soldiers can be presented by the forces of Ukraine's defense by sabotage attacks or provocations.

Oleksandr Kovalenko claims that the offensive group of the Russian Federation, which can form during exercises, can threaten Poland and the Baltic States. They can provoke hybrid provocation against these countries. "At a time when the US is not a reliable partner and begins the process of withdrawing troops from Poland, it can be such a trigger for Putin. The observer.

In turn, the military expert, the founder of BO "Reactive Mail" Pavel the Narozhny deny the possibility of attack by Russia of the territories of Poland and the Baltic. "Poland and the Baltic countries are unlikely to threaten this group, because Russia now has no resources to fight at the same time with Ukraine, with Poland," the expert says. According to Nazhny, Kyiv region, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Rivne region are very difficult for the Russian offensive.

It is lawn by forests, swamps and rivers. In addition, it was well strengthened by Ukrainian troops. "There are two or three roads in the north of Ukraine, which the enemy can be moved theoretically. But there is one" but. " They are right there on the border, they will be stuck in these forests and in these swamps. According to the expert, the forces of defense are currently holding in the north, troops that are waiting for the theoretical possibility of attacking the Russian Federation.