$ 800 billion - on the Armed Forces. How to create a real defense of Ukraine

In order to dramatically change the situation with Ukraine's defense capability, a large jerk is needed. Economist Alexei Kush is convinced that the country needs a decade of accelerated growth in order to eventually enter the GDP of a trillion dollars. About the military budget. War is also a competition of economic potentials. But there is an important condition - with equal levels of involvement in the war. In 2024, the Russian Federation will spend on the power sector (army, police, FSB, etc.

) 6% of GDP or $ 130 billion. To form a parity, we need to spend about the same as we have no technological advantage. That is, more than 80% of GDP, which is impossible a priori. Based on all models, there is a risk of disproportion in force levels. Remember this conclusion and call it "the erroneous conclusion number one". The risk of imbalance in costs is offset by the external assistance factor.

Moreover, given the economic potential of our allies, the advantage is on our side: the GDP of our partners is 25 times higher than the potential of the Russian Federation. We also remember this conclusion, calling it "the false conclusion number two". After all, the Russian Federation is fully involved in the war, and our allies are only small. They spent $ 250 billion on Ukraine. In two years, which was 0. 5% of their GDP.

If they directed 5%, that is, ten times more, an astronomical budget would be 2. 5 trillion. Dol. For such money, it would be possible to build a "Star of Death", by analogy with "Star Wars" . . . . Then Russia would have to spend several annual GDP. As we can see, the war gave birth to two myths. The first is "Russia is weaker because the potential of Western countries is greater. " The second is "Russia is stronger because its economy is more powerful than Ukrainian.

" In fact, the situation is now reminiscent of boxing in boxing, approximate equality of resources and exhaustion of two sides. The help of our allies allows you not to fall in the clinch, but it is not enough for a significant advantage, especially technical and technological. By the way, in the structure of our defense budget the main part is the salary of the military. This is very good for warriors, but it also indicates that technology and technical means remains enough financial resources.

Although the main "eager" in the war should be technology and technology. And the output in the creation of a 10 -year growth segment at 5%+ for 10 years with GDP release to 1 trillion. Dol. so that the annual 5% of the gross product for defense amounted to $ 50 billion. And to make it exclusively our expenses. We take a segment of end of war and post -war recovery, plus the structural restructuring of the economy - by 2030. So, from 2030 to 2040 - GDP acceleration up to 1 trillion. Dol.

The period of "great impetus". Then exit to the trajectory of mature economy and a 10-year cycle of consolidation of results with investing 5% of GDP in defense. In 20 years - up to $ 800 billion. investment in the army. This will create the best national security foundation. They say the best time to plant a tree - 20 years ago. The second time to plant a tree is today. On the economy growth model up to 1 trillion. Dol.

And I wrote 5% for defense against this amount (and not five times smaller) since 2016. Moreover, I already said that the true patriot of the country is the one who formulates the rational and pragmatic path to this top. I even said then, with GDP of $ 100-200 billion, we will not build a defense sector that will be afraid to attack. But society then thwarted the renaming of avenues, language issues, church, "8 or 9 May", "Celebrate or not March 8", etc.