"It's not too late, all in Caspian": The expert told about the escape of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation
In this regard, the military-political observer of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko noted that the invaders remain nothing to evacuate ships to the Caspian because of threats coming from the Ukrainian forces. It is about small missile ships "Amur" and "Tucha" of 22800 "Karakurt", which Russia was preparing to transfer inland waters to the Caspian Sea through a shipbuilding plant in Zelenodolsk (Republic of Tatarstan).
"It can be said that Russia has started evacuating its fleet (flotilla) into the Caspian Sea. Yes, not in full composition, yes, initially unfinished MRK, but awareness of hopelessness in the Black Sea and the lack of possibility of counteracting Ukrainian means of defeat in the Russian command already It has come, "Kovalenko stressed. The expert added that in 2023 he published a post, which spoke about the prospects for the stay of the Black Sea Fleet ships in Sevastopol and Novorossiysk.
According to him, even the withdrawal from such dangerous places will not change the situation, so the only option to save the remaining navy is to bring it to the Caspian Sea. "The Russian command should understand that even the withdrawal of their flotilla from the extreme Sevastopol to Novorossiysk will not save the situation, since water near this port is also not safe. In Caspium. So far, it is not too late, all in the Caspian!" - Kovalenko wrote.
At the same time, the expert emphasizes, "the Caspian Sea is not rubber", so moving ships from the Black Sea creates new challenges. Thus, the Caspian Fleet of the Russian Federation mostly consists of warships up to 2000 tons, which are based in Astrakhan, Mahachkali and Caspian. Ships of 2000-3000 tons, such as the ships of 11661k "Gearad" and even the 21631 "Buyan", will be difficult in the Caspian Sea, but their presence will significantly increase Russia's shock potential in the region.
The relocation of the fleet to the Caspian Sea increases the impact potential of Russia at the expense of the cruise missiles of the Caliber maritime base. This can cause an imbalance of forces among the Caspian states, says Kovalenko. Therefore, for the region will become relevant complexes of anti -ship coastal defense, coastal air defense air defense and possibly marine drones, similar to that Ukraine uses in the Black Sea.