Negotiations in November? What is Putin prepared for

Timothy Ash British economist, the Kremlin expert will have to negotiate the Russian military potential sooner or later, and if Putin wants to preserve a NATO military parity in the future or NATO's possibility against NATO, better than later he will have to negotiate. And for the energy war, its levers in any potential negotiations have a short shelf life-the coming winter, as the West is now moving at an accelerated rate to cut off Russia from the energy supply chains.

Video of the day is most likely that the Battle of Kherson will end over the next few months, and then, after the first attempt in the fall, to suppress Europe on the energy issue, Putin will offer some peace - approximately - in November - a potential peaceful proposal. The ball will be on the side of Ukraine-whether to agree again to the bad peace (as it was with Minsk-1 or Minsk-2)-or to continue the fight.

I feel that this time Ukraine is much more unity and determination to fight, until much more territory is returned - south, Zaporozhye and ports in Kherson region - key. This is something that can ensure Ukraine's strengthening of peace. If you remember, Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 signed after the defeat of Ukraine in the Ilovay and Debaltsev boiler, respectively. What gave Putin to these negotiations, and Ukraine was on the verge of catastrophic lesions.

This time everything will be different if Putin fails to change the course of the battle for Kherson. I think this time the military power of the two countries is very different. General military dynamics - on the side of Ukraine with the support of NATO and the benefits of live power. The question here is whether some NATO members will threaten this support if Ukraine does not accept the peace agreement proposed by Putin.

NATO may well be divided into this issue - Americans with the British together with Eastern European countries will support Ukraine in a rigid line, while the French and Germans will pedal the peace agreement again. I would say that the West, as potential peace talks, should do everything possible to put pressure on Russia. This pressure is triangent: 1. Increase military and financial support to Ukraine immediately. Show and prove Putin that the event supports Ukraine in the long run.

If Putin thinks that Ukraine can wage this war with such intensity infinitely for a long time, he willingly go to peace talks now. 2. Unity and once again unity. As they say, not to take garbage from home (differences to people). 3. Continue to impose sanctions - to close entry for Russian citizens to the west - a good option.