New War with Moldova? What will be in the case of pro -Russian referendum in Transnistria

Transnistria deputies prepare an appeal to the Russian President. Similar meetings were in 2006, the result of which was a referendum. At that time, more than 97% of the residents of the enclave spoke for the future with Russia. The focus was understood as the event and whether a new armed conflict should be expected. On February 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to speak to the Federal Meeting on February 29.

The Head of State will certainly present his election program and tell about the "results" of a full -scale invasion of Ukraine, Rosmi wrote. Another event will take place before the message: on February 28, deputies from Transnistria want to ask for Russia. The Transnistrian oppositionist Gennady Chorba reported that on the specified day a congress of deputies of all levels in Tiraspol was appointed, and does not exclude that such a team was given in the Kremlin.

On February 29, Putin should announce the request of the separatists in the appeal to the Federal Assembly. Moscow in an accelerated order will grant the request of politicians, calculates Chor. The Congress announced on February 28 will be the seventh. The previous meetings were held in March 2006, and their final declaration contained a request to the State Duma of Russia to recognize the independence of Transnistria and hold a referendum.

In the same year, the referendum took place: more than 97% of Transnistria residents spoke for the entry of the republic into Russia. What decisions want to make on February 28 - is unknown. Chisinau considers the Transnistria branch a little realistic, but warns Tiraspol on "ill -advised steps. " The government is following the events on the left bank of the Dniester, in constant contact with the OSCE and international partners.

"According to the information we have, there is no reason to believe that the situation in the region may worsen. We are convinced that Tiraspol is aware of what consequences are expected in the event of ill -advised steps," the Moldova reintegration bureau said. Focus interviewed military experts and political scientists are convinced that it is too early to talk about future armed conflict.

First you need to understand who initiated the Congress of PMR deputies (the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic): if the local authorities, Moscow simply expresses gratitude without military activity, considers the Center for Foreign Policy Programs, the Coordinator of the International Projects of the Razumkov Center.

But if an indication of the meeting of separatists came from the Kremlin, as spoke of the Transnistrian oppositionist Chorba, the inevitable scenario by analogy with the recognition of independence "L/DNR" on February 21, 2022 and a further invasion of Ukraine. "The second option is related to the preparation of destabilization of the situation in Moldova. We will hope that this is a local initiative with" PMR "to raise information noise," Melnyk emphasizes.

Oleg Zhdanov, a military analyst, warns about the serious situation in the pro -Russian enclave. The referendum in March is unlikely, no one will give Moscow a corridor in PMR to move goods, military goods and personnel to support a military contingent. "We see another political blackmail of the event from Putin. The events in Transnistria at the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine showed that there were no people who wanted to fight for Russia. People got Romanian and Moldavian passports.

Large queues were observed to leave the enclave," He explains focus. Moscow wants to achieve a corridor in Transnistria to supply a military base. Romania can do this, but then the second front will open for Ukraine, the expert says. Melnik does not see how Russia could use military force in the region. The possibilities of throwing forces with air, earth and sea are blocked. "Moscow may well attack the Moldovan aerial and maritime rockets, as well as Shahd drones.

The likelihood of land operations or the landing of the zero landing," he emphasizes. The problem is that pro -Russian moods are exacerbated in Moldova. The Social Party "Shore" periodically protests in Chisinau since mid -September 2023. Some party members openly advocate Russia's interference in Moldova. The risk of split in society through the future course of Moldova can intensify. Russian troops in Transnistria are in constant combat readiness, their numbers are estimated at 1700 people.

The main task of the group is to protect the large composition of weapons in the village of Kolbasna and the airfield in Tiraspol. There are also illegal armed units in the PMR, there are 7-8 thousand people or four motor raimers of incomplete composition. Two of them are in Tiraspol and Bender, two more in Dubossars and in the north in Rybnitsa.

Regular parts of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on December 23, 2023 conducted training without coordination with Chisinau: the shots lasted about 40 minutes in the area of ​​Gisysk and Korzhova on the left bank of the Dniester. During the training, an attack on a checkpoint was staged. The coordinator of the "Information Resistance" group Alexander Kovalenko provides statistics for military equipment in the Russian Federation in Transnistria.

The group has 11 T-64B/BV and T-72 tanks, about 150 combat vehicles, up to 60 units of artillery and 20 RSZV, but not all specimens are in a capable state. "If you imagine that it is a group that is difficult to call a shock, invades Ukraine, its complete destruction will take up to two weeks and no more," the expert notes.

On the other hand, the Group of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is more capable of Moldova's army, so the threat of overthrow of legal power in Chisinau remains, confident Kovalenko. There is almost no threat to Transnistria for Ukraine. The analogies with annexations of temporarily occupied territories of Donbass and southern Ukraine are inappropriate here. In PMR there is no common border with the Russian Federation and access to the sea.

It will not be possible to throw additional weapons there. The Armed Forces can be contacted by the Russian military, then Tiraspol will definitely not stand. Recall that the commander of the third separate assault brigade Maxim Zhorin allowed the possibility of accession of Transnistria to Russia. In his opinion, Moldova could ask for help in resolving this issue in Ukraine.