Nuclear Scenario: Russia is preparing for China's invasion - Financial Times (Photo)

According to experts, in these documents, consisting of 29 files made in the period from 2008 to 2014, the Russian military described the scenarios of preparation for the invasion of China, the directions of impact by the PRC, as well as the criteria of potential nuclear response of the Russian Federation. "We see for the first time that such documents are published in the open. They show that the operational threshold of nuclear weapons is quite low if the desired result cannot Eurasia.

Although these files date back to 10 or more years, analysts claim that they are still relevant for modern Russian military doctrine. According to Financial Times experts, tactical nuclear weapons of Russia, which can be delivered with land or maritime -based missiles, as well as aircraft designed for limited combat use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to more "strategic" weapons intended for US defeat .

Despite the current partnership with China, which, after invasion of Ukraine, strengthened the status of the Russian Federation as a younger brother, the Kremlin's political and military elites demonstrate deeply rooted suspicions about the eastern neighbor. However, despite the fact that countries have become closer, the educational materials of secret files show that Russia's eastern military district rehearsed many scenarios depicting Chinese invasion.

Educational presentations for the Russian military, according to experts, reveal the essence of how Russia considers its nuclear arsenal - as a cornerstone of its defense policy with the ability to strike a nuclear strike first.

Thus, in one of the presentations describing China's hypothetical attack, it is emphasized that Russia, which is called "Northern Federation" for the purpose of military games, can respond with a tactical nuclear blow to stop the offensive of the "south" with the second wave of forces of invasion.

The threshold for the use of nuclear weapons of the Russian Federation is considered experts presented as a set of factors in which the losses suffered by Russian troops will "irreversibly lead to their inability to stop the aggression of the great enemy", which is a "critical situation for the state security of Russia".

Other potential conditions include the destruction of 20% of Russian submarines with ballistic missiles, 30% of atomic shock submarines, three or more cruisers, three aerodromes, or simultaneous impact on the main and backup coastal command centers. The files, according to analysts of the publication, are spelled out under which Russian military can also use tactical nuclear weapons for a wide range of targets, including "restraining states from the use of aggression . . .

or escalation by Russian troops of battles or territories, or to make, for example, the Russian fleet is "more effective". In 2023, Putin reminded that the Russian nuclear doctrine allowed two possible thresholds of nuclear weapons: a blow to the first nuclear strike of the enemy and "if the very existence of Russia as a state is threatened, even if ordinary weapons are used.

" At the same time, according to Financial Times, Putin himself added that none of the criteria would probably be fulfilled, and rejected public calls for fans of hard line to reduce the threshold. However, according to Jack Wtling, a senior terrestrial warfare at the Royal Institute of Defense Research (Rusi), the materials of secret files are aimed at preparing Russian units for situations in which Russia may need the opportunity to use nuclear weapons, not to "establish a summary.

Its application. " Last June, reminiscent of the publication, Putin stated that he was "negative" to the use of tactical nuclear blows, but then boasted that in Russia a good non -excited arsenal is larger than in NATO countries. According to the US, the Russian Federation has at least 2000 such weapons. At the same time, the documents reflect the tendencies that are observed in the training that their Russian military was regularly conducted before and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Yes, William Alberc, Director of Strategy, Technology and Control of Weapons of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London provides examples of Russian exercises conducted in June and November 2023 using Iskander missiles that carry nuclear weapons, in two regions. Border with China. Experts are convinced that although Moscow has become closer to Beijing, transferring forces from east to Ukraine, it continues to increase its oriental defense.

"Russia continues to strengthen and test its nuclear weapons, in the Far East near the border with China. Many of these systems can only strike in China," Alberke emphasized. Experts believe that using what Russia calls "the motivation of fear", it will seek to put an end to the conflict on its own conditions, shocking the enemy with the early use of small nuclear weapons or threatening to do so.

"They say that" sober up "their opponents - to remove them from a state of intoxication from the first victories with nuclear weapons. The best way they think they can do is to use what they call it a lower "dose" of nuclear weapons at a much lower level of hostilities to prevent escalation, "Alberke notes.

Financial Times reminds that Ukrainian officials have argued that Putin's nuclear threats convinced the United States and other allies not to argue Kiev more decisively in the early stages of the conflict, when NATO's advanced weapons could be broken in favor of Ukraine.

At the same time, according to experts of the publication, Russian leaders believe that a nuclear strike in Ukraine may most likely lead to escalation of conflict, not "tinging", as well as direct intervention by the United States or the United Kingdom. "And this is the last thing Putin wants," Alberke is convinced.