The hardest thing ahead: Mike Coffman called key challenges for the Armed Forces after traveling to Ukraine

Defense Specialist and Senior Researcher at the Carnegie Foundation Michael Kafman returned from the next trip from Ukraine and shared his observations in X (Twitter). In Ukraine, the situation with live strength, fortifications and ammunition is constantly improving. But Russian troops also have gradual successes in Donetsk region. However, the invaders were unable to use the Kharkiv offensive for a significant breakthrough. The Kharkiv Front stabilized.

The ratio of power is not on the Russian side. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are focused on: despite a significant improvement in forecasts, eliminating the deficiency of living force in the Armed Forces will take time. Therefore, the next two months in the Donetsk region, where the occupiers will be pressed. The change in the US policy on the use of weapons allowed Ukraine to move out the Russian C-300, which were used to fire Kharkiv.

This gave the city a break and forced Russia to make adjustments, although at that time the offensive had already reached the climax. Michael Kafman writes that the solution to the problem with personnel is already ongoing. After passing the law on mobilization, it began to go better. Recruitment centers work more efficiently. Within a few months, the new force will reinforce the front. However, the situation is critical. Ukraine lacks air defense systems from all types from near to far radius.

They are needed to protect the front line, cities, critical infrastructure and rear areas. There are very few stocks in Ukraine for Soviet SPRs, while the Russian Federation has significantly increased the production of drones and rockets. The air deficit has led to drones in the Ukrainian rear, which lead rockets for important goals.

The problem with the SPR is much wider, it has an effect on artillery, gives the Russian Federation dynamically aimed at the rear, and also makes the air defense of a large radius of action risky. The Armed Forces began to use drones-interceptors, but it needs a large-scale solution. Russian aircraft (UMPC/UMPB) became more accurate and received a greater range. They destroy whole positions and have more psychological impact than artillery.

Several aviation can be equalized to the land that would withstand several days of artillery shelling. The promise to provide additional Patriot, NASAMS and HAWK batteries, as well as rediating anti -aircraft missiles to Ukraine can significantly change the situation this year. However, the challenge is the Patriot protection itself. The key threat is Russian rocket strokes. They are increasingly elegant to air strikes and increase production.

The strikes have destroyed a significant part of the non -nuclear generation of electricity in Ukraine. The country is expected by the hardest winter. The needs of the country need about 16 GW, in the most optimistic scenario, Ukraine will produce 12. "Although Ukraine is likely to stabilize the front line, solve the problem of lack of air defense, electricity and improving its own shock potential It is more important to the trajectory of this war, "the author sums up.

The supply of Western ammunition has somewhat improved the situation with ammunition. According to the analyst, in the Kharkiv direction the ratio is 1: 1, and in other places it is 5: 1 in favor of the Russian Federation. There are still problems in certain areas that causes artillery to act closer to the front line. While Ukraine is improving the situation with personnel, the event should improve the level of training at its landfills.

Additional living power will help stabilize the situation in the fall, which will improve rotation and complete the crews. "The event should also assist with the packages of losses to replace losses and equip new units, otherwise it will be mostly infantry or, at best, motorized crews. Ukrainian units require more M113, Bradley and basic protected mobility," Kafman writes. Russian troops are not capable of conducting large -scale operations or overcoming well -prepared borders.

Most storms are carried out by small detachments of 8-15 fighters, sometimes 4-6 people. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation alternate attacks by mechanized units, light machines and infantry, it all depends on the availability of equipment. Some units use motorcycles or ATVs to reduce the loss of armor, as well as because of the inability to move to the positions of defenders.

Such tactics can give the Russian Federation gradual promotion, but it is so difficult to achieve promptly significant breakthroughs. In this case, large -scale attacks for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are very expensive for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and they cannot afford the losses that were in the Avdeevsky direction. We will remind, on July 10 the media wrote what characteristics the Russian rocket called "Izdelie 720".