"Theatrical background": As Putin is preparing for the presidential election - NYT

According to Professor of Political Science of the European University in St. Petersburg Hryhoriy Goloish, in Russia for many years there was no political opposition for many years. The presidential election in Russia is scheduled for spring 2024. The incumbent President Vladimir Putin is likely to run for the fifth period. He is expected to formally announce his candidacy next month.

But whether it will be as smooth as in the previous times when Putin "confidently won with the great advantage", it is difficult to say, since these are the first elections in Russia after the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine. About it writes The New York Times. The election result will directly affect Russia's military strategy. In particular, whether Putin wins, depends on whether a new mobilization will be announced after the election, which is likely to be unpopular in the population.

"War and mobilization are becoming more and more unpopular. They cause concern for people," said Andrei Peptsev, an analyst of the Russian edition of Medusa. Critics question the purpose of the presidential election in a war -country country where most of the opposition leaders either expelled or have been imprisoned. The Kremlin -controlled election apparatus filters uncomfortable candidates, and the media praise the incumbent president.

Hryhoriy Volosov, Professor of Political Science of the European University in St. Petersburg, said that Putin wanted to make sure that no one (first of all political elites) would be able to call into question his legitimacy at the head of the Russian state. "In general, the Russian ruling class, in particular, is aware that for many years in Russia has not had any political opposition," he said.

The voice said that even the visibility of electoral legitimacy will help Putin withstand a possible internal crisis, giving as one example a failed rebellion of the founder of the founder of PEC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigogine, noting that such a situation can be repeated.

Several more candidates are expected to participate in the elections, including representatives of two political parties-the communist and nationalist liberal-democratic party-who were convenient sparring partners during Putin's previous campaigns. As it happened during the two previous elections. The Kremlin may also allow the liberal candidate to participate in the race, although experts say it is still an open issue, since any such candidate will most likely be campaign against war in Ukraine.

For example, Boris Nadezhdin, one of the few Russian politicians who declared his intention to run, called the war in Ukraine a "fatal mistake" of Putin. "Putin pulls Russia into the past and violates the main institutions of the modern state," said Nadezhdin in an interview with the Russian news YouTube channel "Living Carnation" this month.

Political scientist Volosov believes that the Central Election Committee will not allow Nadezhdin to register as a candidate in the presidential election, cutting his application at the stage of verification of 100 thousand signatures required for registration. However, according to NYT, controlled elections can create problems for the Kremlin.

Although the result has not yet been resolved, elections in Russia sometimes come as a critical turning point when the political system becomes more vulnerable than usual. For example, at the end of 2011, tens of thousands of Russians filled the central squares of Moscow and other major Russian cities, protesting against the parliamentary elections they considered counterfeit. This year, the war in Ukraine adds a new element of uncertainty, analysts say.

Although Russia managed to suspend the Ukrainian counter -offensive, it did not achieve any significant breakthrough. And while the war is delayed, the Russians are worried that even more soldiers may be needed to implement Putin's plans for the capture of Ukraine. Therefore, the Kremlin does not yet declare mobilization, fearing a negative reaction within the country.

A survey conducted by a non -party Moscow Research Company "Russian Field" showed that for the first time since the beginning of the war, more Russians have stated that they support negotiations rather than the continuation of the war. Almost two -thirds of the surveyed by the phone said they would support a peace agreement with Ukraine if it is signed tomorrow. 1611 respondents took part in this survey, with 6403 more refused to answer the questions.

According to Andrei Pestsev, the Kremlin is aware of this change of mood, so they try to shift their agenda from the war to more "landed issues". "The war only aggravates the situation of the presidential campaign. This is reminiscent of people's difficulties," Peptsev said. On the eve of the presidential campaign in Moscow built a large -scale exhibition "Russia".

Visitors to the exhibition are more than 150 meters long, which shows the achievements of the country under the leadership of Putin, at the same time, the war is not mentioned. Pertsev claims that the purpose of the exhibition is to create a "theater background" for Putin's election campaign. "The Russian vertical power is using elections to once again demonstrate that everything is going well and that the event has not broken Russia," the analyst said.

Another condition for holding the elections, he said, is that Putin likes when his work and love of the people is demonstrated in public, and "the older he becomes, the more he likes it. " We will remind, the Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine Alexei Danolov stated that in the Russian Federation there is a possible total mobilization after the election of the President of 2024.

According to Danilov, the presidential elections in the Russian Federation will become a "landmark date" for the Kremlin on March 17, 2024, after which total mobilization of citizens is possible. Earlier, Focus wrote that the Kremlin is concerned about the election of the President of the Russian Federation in 2024, despite the support of Putin. According to analysts, the Kremlin can be concerned about Putin's support among direct participants in the war against Ukraine.