Bakhmut price. Will the fortress repeat the fate of Soledar or battle be a turning point for war

The American Institute for War Study (ISW) wrote about the possible creation of conditions for a limited departure of the Armed Forces, but the Ukrainian General Staff did not give such orders. One of the tasks is to cause maximum defeat to the occupiers. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky supported the idea of ​​strengthening Bakhmut's defense at the Supreme Commander -in -Chief on March 6.

The head of state asked the Commander -in -Chief of the Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny and commander of the Land Forces Alexander Sirsky, how to further defend the city. Both military officers agreed with the idea of ​​strengthening positions. "I told the head to find the right strength to help the boys in Bakhmut. There is no such part of Ukraine to say that it could be refused," Zelensky said. On the same day, the President explained the purpose of Bakhmut's protection in an interview with CNN.

The invaders will not stop - they will get an open road to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. The Time newspaper, citing Western analysts, describes two possible scenarios in the coming weeks: both armies may lack resources and suffer from internal differences, so Bakhmut can determine the fate of Bakhmut, the authors write.

The expert of the Institute of War Study Carolina Hurd says that a fracture of the situation under Bakhmut to the Russian Federation will not give the occupiers significant changes at the front. The promotion of streets and quarters is inevitable, but the Ukrainian General Staff views approaches to defense. "We observe a slow departure of the Armed Forces from positions in the eastern Bakhmut to the West, where they have well -fortified positions.

If the bypass maneuver of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the eastern part is successful, they are waiting for strong resistance in the western," - explains the specialist. The Ukrainian deputy and the chairman of the Ukrainian delegation at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly Yegor Cherniyev said Time that the Ukrainian forces were keeping control over the roads of supply in the city. But he adds that Bakhmut's keeping is not the end goal of Kiev.

"If you look at the map and tactical situation, we seem to be in plus. Ukraine's long -term interests are fulfilled - we grind mobilized Russians and their ammunition. There is time to prepare reserves for spring counter -offensive," the politician comments. According to the director of the Russian research department in the American Center for Navy, Michael Coffman, new losses of Ukraine in Bakhmut may interfere with the success of more important military operations.

If Bakhmut comes under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, it will be a symbolic victory - the second after seizing Soledar. For Ukraine it will be a loss - the first major territorial concession and a blow to the general moral spirit, confident military experts. The departure of the Defense Forces of Ukraine from Soledar became known on January 25. The command then decided to keep the personnel and strengthen it on the prepared limits.

The enemy forces in the Soledar direction were depleted, spoke representative of the eastern group of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces Sergey Cherevvt. Carolina Hurd is convinced that Bakhmut will not give Moscow a serious strategic advantage in battles. The forces and resources spent on its admiration will prevent other offensive operations from starting. "This would mean the same as in the summer of 2022, when Severodonetsk and Lisichansk fell. It will not be a turning point in the war.

The Armed Forces will have the opportunity to return the initiative after the offensive was completed," she said. This opinion was voiced by Pentagon Lloyd Austin during his visit to Jordan. He did not predict Bakhmut's capture by the Russians, but emphasized the effectiveness of the Wagnerians in battles compared to the rest of the invaders. "I would say that Wagner's forces were a little more effective than Russian forces. We did not see the exemplary actions of Russian troops," Austin said.

Political scientist Viktor Bobirenko in communication with focus admits the idea of ​​surrendering the city by analogy with Soledar, because for Ukraine, unlike Russia, it is more important to save people's lives rather than the ruins of buildings. "If there is almost no way to bring the ammunition and food qualitatively, we suffer uneven losses. At the beginning of the Bakhmut operation we have the losses 1: 7, and now 1: 3. There is height, "he explains.

From the political point of view, Bakhmut became a symbol of both Kiev and Moscow. Putin will be able to tell the Russians after the victory that they are "great people", adds Bobirenko. "We retreated and forgot from Soledar, as well as with Bakhmut and there will be nothing wrong. We need to explain to people that it was a forced departure," the political scientist said.

The New York Times, Andrew Krammer, referring to several Ukrainian officials, writes that the Armed Forces' achievements in the Bakhmut protection process justify their high losses, but some soldiers on the front doubt the feasibility of its protection. "In the battles on the artillery fired by the streets of the city and in the surrounding villages, the losses of both sides are huge.

The gradual offensive of Russia in recent weeks forced some representatives of Ukraine to hint at the possibility of retreat to avoid the environment, but Ukrainian assault brigades went on attack on weekends and pushed the Russians," The Kramamer notes. Ukrainian commanders in communication with The New York Times talk about the desire to stay in Bakhmut as long as possible, destroying the enemy's forces, even if they do not hold the city eventually.

The problem is to choose the time if the withdrawal of troops is necessary, it is necessary to perform it with minimal losses. The greatest risk for the Ukrainian forces is to get into the environment and the inability to replenish the reserves in the outskirts of the city. The military tell reporters about three main arteries that provide vital ways for thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation blocked one of the routes and approach the other two.

The road from Bakhmut to the Temporal Yar, according to commanders, is regularly fired. The main highway to the southwest, where the Armed Forces, thanks to the counterattack, dropped the Russians somewhat, is still under heavy shelling. Teacher of the Team and Staff College of the Israeli Defense Army, researcher of Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security, Jankin Henkin emphasizes the inertia of the parties in Bakhmut's battles.

If so much effort has already been spent on taking the city and its protection, how do you stop storming and admit defeat? "From the outside, it looks like a struggle for an insufficient object. I refrain from such a statement, since Ukrainians protect Bakhmut as stubborn as Russian storms. Perhaps, the symbolic importance of the city may play a role. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain," Hankin said.

The best place to break the Armed Forces now, as the scientist noted, is the Zaporizhzhia region. It is much more difficult to break through the front in the Bakhmut area, but in the Zaporozhye region it is possible to develop an offensive from different directions. Recall that in early December 2022, experts surveyed by focus spoke about the possible departure from Bakhmut, as from Severodonetsk and Lisichansk for preservation of personnel and equipment.