"Axis of Evil" - at the border of Antarctica. Like China, Iran and Russia capture the southern ocean

Although it is strange, but China is fighting for the Atlantic, and even more strange - Iran has already appeared there. Former naval officer Tom Sharp in the Telegraph column warns: if the penetration of the "axis of the evil" into the southern ocean is not stopped, the consequences for the event can be very unpleasant treaties - a thing is variable: political conditions that lead to their creation are rarely durable.

One of the most successful treaties of the present, the Antarctic Treaty begins to crack. Signed on December 1, 1959 and came into force on June 23, 1961, he had signatures of 12 countries. The purpose of the project is to ensure that Antarctica remains a nature reserve dedicated to peace and science. But the world is changing, and now China seems to have another agenda. There are three reasons why this contract has survived and expanded to 54 members (of which 29 are entitled to vote).

First, because it is written clear, but at the same time reasonable. Secondly, it is obvious that maintaining the integrity and purity of the coldest, the highest, most dry and least populated continent in the world is desirable. But diplomacy and altruism had a stronger partner here. The third reason why the contract remained in force is that it is very difficult to get Antarctica and something there.

The only ice floe of the Protector royal fleet is based on the Falkland Islands, which themselves are hardly a lively international center. From there you need to swim another 1000 miles of the most waters on Earth: the most "fierce fifty". The huge ocean waves are constantly circulating around the planet clockwise, and then they are brought to the madness through the narrowing and grinding of the Drake Strait - the rupture between the Cape Horn and the Antarctic Peninsula.

When you send your ship, food, sleep and moving on the ship become problematic, often for a few days. You can reduce the transition to about 600 miles from Ushuai or Punta Arenas or extend it from Christchurch, Hobart or Cape Town, but the fundamental problem will not disappear: you are in extreme conditions with limited capacity if something goes wrong.

Of course, ships of all sizes have worked, sailed and fishing for centuries, so it is possible, but it is not for people with weak nerves, and there should be good economic reasons to justify the risk. The old clipes, which used the fierce western winds of the Far South for the rapid transportation of goods, mostly remained in a little more civilized "roaring forties": they were plunged in the fifties only to pass the Drake Strait.

As soon as you overcome the horrible high southern latitudes - or even when you start overcoming them - the ice starts to become a problem, first drifting ice and then the Antarctic shelf. Improils are not the only option when it comes to persistent operations there, but they make up a significant part of them. The US Coast Guard and the Royal Fleet have only three outdated buildings, and given the Sir David Attenboro research ship, four.

Antarctica flight has been possible for several decades, but it requires special skills, special equipment and special auxiliary services. Yes, the Antarctic Treaty survived and expanded partly due to his wisdom, and partly because it is difficult to challenge him in practice. However, working there, there has always been a feeling that as soon as the huge Antarctic resources would become economically justified, the situation would change. We may now see the beginning of this.

There are no prizes for guessing the one who heads the attack. China only recently built its fifth base in Antarctica for scientific purposes, without providing the environmental examination required by the contract. The base was built in three months. The United States still has the greatest presence on the continent, but China is growing faster. American, British or South Korean bases are not used for military purposes, for espionage or listening. I know that because they were with them.

Currently, the only resource that can be used in Antarctic is marine life. Sometimes minerals and fuel will start to produce on land, but now the environment is too hostile to go there. But marine life has long been suitable for exploitation: most of the large-scale industrial whaling of the 20th century took place in Antarctic.

Today, according to its global principles of departure of fishing fleets everywhere, China has a fleet of "super trauler" in the waters of Antarctic, which produce huge quantities of wings and other fish, knowing that regulation is almost impossible and declaring "research".

In 2019, China tried to seize control over the Argus dome, the highest point of Antarctica and possibly the coldest place on Earth - between the mountains and the glacial cover at their top, the surface is located at an altitude of more than 13,000 feet. It was blocked, but for what time? Russia also expands its presence on the continent and is engaged in fishing, as the involved vessels are darkened or fake their location in different tracking systems. People who catch fish are not easy.

Iran, which is not included in 54 countries that have signed the treaty, and is not part of 29 countries with the right of voice, but never grazing the rear, when it is possible to cause harm, announced last autumn of its intention to build a base in Antarctic About "property rights". The first question is: "Is this meaning?" I would say yes, and not only because of the need to preserve the environment, but also because the permission of this activity is even more stimulated.

Regardless of the contract, the presence and activity may well turn into "property rights" once. More known examples of this are the failure to comply with international law and the rapid increase in civilian/dual-use military objects in the South Chinese Sea and the Arctic. Another overall interference with energy and communication infrastructure, as well as active blocking of narrow places in the Black and Red Seas.

All this has happened for many years, but recently the pace has accelerated because we could neither restrain it nor act. In other words, it is important because it is part of a general pattern of behavior that is designed to deplete our resources in the short term and provide them with strategic economic benefits in the long run, and only early and decisive decision making will stop it. The question is second.

Is it all sufficient for countries to invest in regulation? This will require a consistent strategy, supported by the increase in the number of people, inspectors, ships and mechanisms to ensure compliance with the contract.

If political and financial restrictions complicate consensus in Ukraine, Gazi, Arctic and the Chinese Sea, what are the chances of overcoming these obstacles in remote, inaccessible Antarctic? We have small groups of decisive politicians, diplomats, influential persons, scientists and sailors who do everything possible to help and inform.

It seems that large groups of people now inevitably seek to destroy, stretch and use the weaknesses of the contract, and this will only accelerate in the absence of significant restraining factors. The soft force only applies to a certain point: in the end you will have to do something, otherwise the position will be lost. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position. The author is responsible for published data in the "Thought" section.